Currently being conducted by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), the Earth Orientation Parameter Combination of Prediction Pilot Project is designed to determine the feasibility and benefits of combining EOP predictions on a daily basis.
The concept of combining predictions (or ensemble predictions) has been used in other fields for a number of years. Ensemble predictions make use of sampling the "prediction space" by using various algorithms and potentially different, but still likely, initial conditions. By producing different predictions and combining the results, these ensemble predictions are more accurate than the results from individual predictions.
It is a logical extension to consider the viability of ensemble predictions for Earth orientation parameters. Theoretically, ensemble predictions can improve both the accuracy and the robustness of predictions. This concept has been proposed, tested and the initial results look promising enough that a pilot project has been initiated.
Participants are asked to provide either of two (or if they desire, both) significant components to this pilot project:
- Participants can provide daily EOP predictions (at least one of PM-x, PM-y, UT1-UTC, dX, dY). Realizing that different methods are optimized for different forecast intervals, predictions of any length from 1 day to at least 90 days made using any choice of prediction algorithm and input data will be accepted. These predictions should be made daily and placed in an accessible area on a machine local to the participant.
- Participants can provide ensemble predictions using the contributed prediction series as input. The ensemble prediction series should be provided daily and the data should be given for every day out to at least 90 days in the future. These ensemble predictions should be made available on an accessible area on machines local to the ensemble prediction generators.
If interested in participating, provide a brief letter of intent to Brian Luzum (brian.luzumusno.navy.mil).